Market Commentary
There is a lot of money looking for a place to go right now. And that's going to increase in the near future. For example, the government cannot afford to support a lot of people on social security. It just cannot do it. And so the alternative is to encourage people to save for retirement and that's happening now. And all that money flows into mutual funds and those funds have to be 90% invested. That's just the way it is.
I still think there are a lot of negatives around (such as our huge debt and absolutely no sign of anyone doing anything about it), and we're still in a secular bear market (meaning PE ratios will continue to trend down). But that doesn't mean that prices won't go up with inflation or a shrinking dolllar.
However, the most important point is that the stock market was in a strong uptrend. We had a big down day, but that didn't even amount to a 10% correction. And the market direction looks like it is resuming up. Listen to the market.









Comments
Our huge debt (personal or public) is partially a reaction to the increasing demand for investments you describe... "Investors" want a return so badly that they're willing to give money to risky investments at very low yields... And it doesn't matter if I use that to buy a house (subprime) or create more government programs.
It's a question of whether or not the current investments are mal-investments or justified given the real inflation rate and real growth rates. If they're mal-investments caused by price distortions from monetary inflation, we could see the results in debt/growth ratios, even while the stock market continues to climb slowly.
Posted by: Jason G. | March 21, 2007 02:48 PM