Secular Bear Market
One person commented that I should not compare the U.S. dollar against the Euro because the dollar is the world's reserve currency. And that I should get my facts straight.
OK, 2003 was the best U.S stock market during the secular bull market, But our market that year was one of the WORST performing stocks markets in the world in 2003. Here is a direct quote from CNN's web site in early 2004.
Take Japan for instance, where traders closed out the year in grand style Tuesday, sending the Nikkei up 1.7 percent before the New Year break. The index posted 24.5 percent gain for the year -- its first win since 1999. Then there's the 36.6 percent jump in Germany's Dax, the 32 percent move in Hong Kong's Hang Seng, and so on.
Factor in the dollar's 14.2 percent drop against the United States' major trading partners (NOT JUST THE EURO) and -- from the perspective of U.S. investors -- the gains get even better. Morgan Stanley Capital International oversees a group of individual country indexes that are considered benchmarks for international investors. The U.S. index has risen 26.5 percent this year. In dollar terms, all but three of the remaining 23 country indexes (Britain's, Holland's and Finland's) surpassed that mark.
Morgan's index of world stock market performance excluding the United States is up 34.1 percent for 2003.
Does that make the point? For 2003-5 one of the best investment strategies you could have had was "anywhere but the U.S."
However, this is not to "knock" the U.S. Americans tend to be very isolated in their thinking. They just see the dollar and the American stock market as the only markets. One of my jobs as a trading coach is to help people see the forest rather than just a few trees.








